Dr. John Vianne Murcia, a local economist and expert in statistical and predictive analytics, cautioned that now is not the right time to suspend VAT and excise taxes on fuel given the country’s current economic situation.
While such a move could lower gasoline prices, he stressed it would not provide significant or immediate relief for most consumers and motorists.
Citing Department of Finance data, Murcia noted that fuel taxes generate around ₱276 billion annually, and suspending them from April to December could result in losses exceeding ₱136 billion.
He emphasized that the government’s fiscal position is fragile, and the budget could be further strained by rising inflation, which may reach between 4.5% and 7.5% if global oil prices climb.
Murcia also pointed out that not all households would benefit equally, as higher-income families—who consume more fuel—would gain disproportionately. Instead of a blanket suspension, he recommended
partial or targeted tax reductions to assist the most affected sectors while maintaining government revenue.
This approach, he argued, balances relief for vulnerable groups with fiscal stability.
